🐎 The track record

Performance & honesty

We publish the evidence, not the marketing. Below is the independently-measured calibration and value record from our validation backtest, plus the live, auto-graded record of today’s selections. We benchmark against the market favourite, not a coin flip — a model that just re-prices the favourite cannot beat it after the bookmaker’s margin.

Validated record (backtest)

Measured on a 2,045-race UK & IRE sample. A/E above 1.0 means we beat the de-vigged market on our top picks; ROI is to starting price; calibration shows our stated probabilities matching reality. The backtest covers UK & Ireland only — our US and Hong Kong cards run on the same method but have not yet been independently validated on a comparable sample, so treat those regions as provisional.

Calibration

Each point: a probability band. When the dots track the diagonal, a stated 20% really wins ~20%.

Live record (today, auto-graded)

The Paddock King is for entertainment and information only. 18+ (21+ where required). Please gamble responsibly — BeGambleAware.org. Our probabilities are estimates, not guarantees; markets move and edges erode. See the track record →